The rich get richer
In 2010 there were 360 male athletes that competed at the All-State championships. Of that total, 156 (43%) were seniors, 137 (38%) were juniors, 56 (15%) were sophomores, 9 (2.5%) were freshman, and 2 were 8th graders (.05%). When broken down by division, the numbers were nearly identical. Conversely, the girls’ side of the sport does not display such a wide variance, and we often see freshman girls make an immediate impact at the highest levels of competition.
So what does that tell us? The data shows a significant gap between the juniors and the sophomores, and the decreasing participation numbers based on age would indicate that physical development and running experience plays a large role in the success of a team in the post season. I’m sure you didn’t need a data set to come to that conclusion, but the trend appears to be significant and the data is consistent over the past few years.
Only 3 sophomores and 1 freshman raced on the top 4 teams (top 2 in each division) in the 2010 All-State Championships, and it appears the team with the largest group of juniors and seniors has the edge. But how do you replace 43% of the field that is lost to graduation? You create consistency in your program across all levels. In boys cross country, the rich get richer.
The reason why you see the same teams qualify for the All-State Championships each year is because the successful coaches do not structure their programs around a single year. They realize that athlete development is a four year plan (even longer for the truly gifted) and most male athletes are not ready to compete at the highest levels until they have had a couple of years to physically develop. Many of the athletes we will see this season did not even race at the varsity level last year, and the coaches that demonstrate the patience to employ a long-term plan will most likely hoist a championship trophy in November. For some, it is the culmination of a decade or more of hard work.
Every team has weaknesses to address this summer, but here is where we stand as of August.
1. Brookline – The Warriors look poised to repeat as Division I Champions and boast the deepest returning rotation of any team in the state. Coach Glennon takes a conservative approach to racing, and you will most likely see a mixed rotation on the race course until October. But don’t let the early season results fool you. Brookline will be firing on all cylinders in November when they finally bring together a rested and peaked group. They have plenty of firepower and plenty of depth to remain undefeated in Massachusetts.
2. Pembroke – Winning breeds winning. After representing New England at the Nike Cross Nationals in 2010, Pembroke enters the 2011 season with an elevated standard of expectations. 4 of their top 7 from last year’s state championship team have graduated, but Wes Gallagher will get plenty of support from Joe Vercollone, Jesse Fine and John Valeri as they launch their quest to repeat as champions. Sophomore Christian Stafford should also be a nice addition to their top 7 after running 4:29 on the oval.
3. Lowell – 2010 was good to Lowell, and they will certainly miss Mike Giardina, Padraic Donovan, and Mike Gendron. But the group that returns looked fantastic on the track, and preparing to fill in the gaps appeared to be a high priority. Alex Andujar and Patrick Coppinger will lead the group, but sophomores Johnny Abraham and Andrew Whitney were two of the fastest freshmen in the state and should help round-out the top 5. Adding to their depth will be Randy Nong who has the #5 freshman 2 mile time from last spring.
4. Saint John’s (Shrewsbury) – Sophomore Jonathan Green proved he could run with anybody in 2010. Green finished 7th in Division I, and his team finished 5th. Two athletes from that group graduated, but the 5 returning runners all posted times under 16 minutes at Gardner. They are the only team in the state to do so, and they have some talented young runners who will contribute to their top 7.
5. Nashoba – This group may be the big surprise of the year because nothing they do is flashy. They are the blue collar team of the Central Division and what they do very well is pack run. Last year they posted a 49 second 1-5 gap at the All-State Championships and four of them were only separated by 15 seconds. Freshman Hayden Smith was their 6th man that day, and his progression curve would indicate that he can take over the 5th man duties and continue the tradition of a small 1-5 gap in 2011.
6. Mansfield – Similar to Pembroke, the expectations are forever changed at Mansfield following the stellar performances of Shayne Collins and Josh Lampron on the track. Collins is off to run at UCLA, but Lampron returns to lead the group. Winning a national championship will do wonders for your confidence, and Lampron knows all he has to do is hang-on to the leaders. Mansfield enters the season with the assumption they will get single digit points from their #1 runner, but the 2-5 gap will determine their success. Fortunately, their 2-5 runners will all be seniors who have extensive experience in big meets.
7. Oliver Ames – OA nailed their training cycles last year and surprised everybody by finishing 3rd at the Division I All-State Championships. They lost three vital components from that group to graduation, but the remaining four will were all under 16 minutes and will all be seniors this year. Drew Beck will once again have the lead duties, and sophomore Dan Moverman should add some depth to the pack after a fantastic freshman track season.
8. Northampton – The Blue Devils scorched the Western Division I Championships in 2010 with 27 total points. The score alone indicates depth, and the core of that group returns in 2011. They may not put anybody in the top 10 of major races, but they will chip away at the pack with a small 1-5 gap.
9. Sandwich – This is the only group that returns all 7 of their runners from the 2010 All-State Championships. Coach Infascelli’s team will be an experienced group of juniors and seniors who should consistently post a 1-5 gap under a minute. Senior David Allen will need to make sure the pack is grouped and in position early to take advantage of their depth.
10. Mt. Greylock – The #10 spot is really up for grabs, with every team listed as being “on the bubble” having a legitimate argument. Mt. Greylock gets the nod for now based on their 10 second 2-5 spread at the 2010 All-State Championships. Logan Wilson was their 5th runner at 16:11, and with a reasonable amount of year-to-year progression, the entire group could be under 16 minutes. This would give them a similar profile to St. John’s and make them tough to beat if they can consistently execute race plans.
Bubble Teams
Walpole – Strong front runners in Zach Ganshirt and Justin Connolly; both can run under 14:55 at Gardner. If Tim Conley can close the gap on Chris Conley, and they can add one more person to make it a trio, this will be a top 10 group.
Bishop Feehan – Bishop Feehan is never really out of the mix, and they won’t be this year either. Their depth is questionable, but their coaching staff is among the best around and that problem is most likely being addressed right now on the streets of Attleboro.
Hopedale – Finished 6th in Divison II last year and has 5 of the 7 returning. Their upside comes in the form of junior Matt Doran and sophomore Paul Maruais who should really benefit from another year of solid training.
Amherst - The Hurricanes have 5 athletes that can run under 17 minutes for 5,000m. This makes them as dangerous as any team in the top 10, but it all depends where that group of 5 is positioned in the main pack of big races. The potential is there, and they are well coached.
Lincoln-Sudbury – Like most teams around the state, L-S just needs one more piece of the puzzle. Unfortunately, that piece of the puzzle is their 5th runner. It may be hard to find superstars, but you can make depth. Look for them to make a push at the end of the season after their young athletes have some experience and a few miles under their belt.
Disagree with the rankings? Let the debate begin by adding a comment in the box to the right.
More Links
2010 All-State Championship Results
2010 Cross Country Stats
2011 Track Stats
Compare Athletes