Does Mansfield Have Enough
Mansfield:
37.3 projected points based on seeds, potential for improvement: even
Esposito should start the point parade with a solid second place in the 300 behind Rebecca Robinson. The 300 is a tricky event however. Many of the top runners have been able to run clear of the field to the critical last curve during the season, and many are unused to the bumping that can occur when the entire group is running at nearly the same pace. Last year the 300 turned into one of the low points of the meet when Meisha Brooks, leading into the curve fell, fracturing her elbow, sending Robinson and Rice wide as Norwood's Cory Ryan avoided the wreckage to win in an upset.
This season Robinson, the outdoor state champion in the 200, should still clear the field going into the curve. Esposito, the only other runner to break 40 this season, should also gain the curve before the others, but things can get interesting. Andover's Bishop is in the chase group.
Esposito also figures prominently in the hurdles along with teammate McDonagh. The top two hurdlers in the field, Clerveaux and Genard, have dominated this event since they were freshman, which leaves Esposito as a solid third seed. Mansfield has the potential to move up in this event however as McDonagh is seeded in a group of four separated by three one hundreds of a second. When run cleanly the hurdles usually run pretty true to form, but it is also an event that invites disaster, as Lolo Jones and Kayla Wong can attest.
The third key event for Mansfield is the high jump and look for them to add to their seed points in this event. Although only seeded in a tie for second, McDonagh has the highest jump this year and has proven in the past to be a big meet performer. The high jump is often the most fickle event of the meet, as positions are often decided by fewer jumps and a brush of the bar can decide the outcome.
Comer also has a chance to add points in the 55. Once again Arlington's Robinson is the clear favorite, but the next three seeds are separated by a mere .01 seconds and includes Newton North's Forbes. Comer has a chance to drive a stake in Newton North's heart if she can overtake Forbes in this event.
The outcome of the meet for Mansfield may rest on their 4x2. Seeded first they have no ability to move up, and there lurks seven teams within a second and a half of their seed time, including rivals Newton North and Andover.
Newton North:
32 projected points based on seeds, potential for improvement: good
The 600 is an event where there always seems to be runners placing from the second heat (or lower!). The runners in the top heat are used to winning and have high hopes for their performance. Someone has to come in at the bottom of the heat however, and invariably they let up in disappointment. In the lower heats the thrill of victory in their heat often powers the leaders through the line. The combination of these two forces usually leads to the overlapping of places across the heats, and this is where North's Bellerose is position well to be a surprise place on the podium as a high seed from the second heat.
Additional points may also follow in the 1000. Gillis has a history of peaking well at the all-state meets and her performance at the division meet shows she may just be hitting her stride again and has the potential to move up from her second seed. Gillis won't overtake LS's Keklak this year as Keklak is running in a league of her own this year, but just ahead of Gillis in the seeds is yet another runner from team rival LS, Marika Crowe, and also Williamson from Wachusett.
Forbes will pile up the points for North in the long jump, the 55, and as the anchor to a relay, but there is no room for improvement as she is already seeded first, second, and first in those three events. While she and North are clear favorites in the long jump and the 4x4, she will have to battle to keep second place in the 55, with key rival Comer of Mansfield a scant .01 seconds behind in the seed times.
Its the jumps where they have additional potential for points. Though not seeded to place, North qualified three high jumpers in a crowded field, any one of whom could make the podium on a good day in this fickle event.
Their 4x2 is only three tenths of a second from the podium and only two seconds from first. North has a huge advantage in the 4x4 so if if comes down to that they win, but based on how the meet is going they could choose to lose the battle but win the war, meaning swap Forbes into the 4x2. It may cost them the 4x4 relay title depending on how many seconds they give up in the swap, but they could also move way up in the 4x2 relay and overall gain several additional team points, which could be the difference in the meet.
30 projected points based on seeds, potential for improvement: slim
LS is a perennial fixture in the team standings for track and cross country. They have now finished in the top five at the indoor, outdoor, and cross-country all-state meets for 14 consecutive seasons, and this meet should make it 15. However, hurt by the loss of their 5-4 high jumper Potter, they will have a tough time moving up from their third place team position as 28 of their 30 projected points are at the ceiling. Keklak and the 4x8 are as solid a 20 points as there are in the meet, but Crowe will have another battle on her hands with rivals Williamson and Gillis if she is to keep her second place behind Keklak.
Their main chance for a move up lies with point horse Lauren Ready, who is positioned to place in the long jump, and is three one hundredths out of the podium in the hurdles. Both positions are very close and she as an equal chance to move up or down in the standings.
29 projected points based on seeds, potential for improvement: slim
Franklin is similarly hitting the ceiling in a couple of key events. Kendal Knaus's 10 points in the 600 look relatively secure, but Ross should have a battle on her hands in the two mile. The two mile features a battle between runners from team contenders Franklin, Andover, and Wachusett. Ross easily bested Andover's Mullins at the D1 meet, but Mullins is the only runner this year to break the 11 minute barrier and looks to rebound. Also look for spoilers Blackman from Longmeadow and cross country champ Hanley from Bishop Feehan. Hanley doubled last week in the mile and two mile, but might skip the mile to be fresh for an attempt at the two mile. Wachusett's Skodis nipped Mullin at the line last week and would do well to hold onto her third place seed.
Franklin also looks to get points from Hagen in the 1000, and their 4x8. The competition in the 1000 does not bode well for much improvement on the seed position in that race, but the 4x8 has potential for a couple extra points only being 3 seconds out of second place.
24 projected points based on seeds, potential for improvement: excellent
Andover has entries all over the place in this meet, several of whom could move up. The most prominent of which is Moira Cronin in the high jump. She barely qualified at the D1 meet but jumped 5-10 outdoor last spring. If Salley can jump as well as last week then Andover could come out of the high jump with more than 10 points. There is also good opportunity in the two mile as Mullins looks to improve on a disappointing third place finish at the division meet. These two events alone could propel Andover into the thirties.
After that things get a little harder, with Eve Bishop being the key. Bishop will be looking to track down Mansfield's Esposito in the 300, and is seeded at only two inches away from the podium in the long jump before heading to the relays. Andover's 4x4, seeded fourth, is less than a second from the runner-up position in the 4x4, and their 4x2, currently out of the money, is even closer to a podium spot.